Editing TheStarsAreRight:CarlNote3 (section)

=='''Recovery?'''==

'''REDLAND'''

About a day outside of port, Jack wakes up, his mind feeling more focused than it has for some days. He tries to sit up but then slumps back. His entire body aches, and he has a terrible pounding in his head. His fever seems to have subsided and he no longer feels cold. He struggles to get up again, but he gives it up for a lost cause. Closing his eyes, he tries to recall where he is and what exactly is going on.

'''CARL'''

(rolling dice….)
 

The first time Jack wakes, he is alone, in his cabin on the ship – whether this is familiar or confusing I can’t say  The ship’s still at sea, so the motion is noticeable.  About 15 minutes later, though, the door opens and Carl slips in, sets a tray of things by the bed and checks your temperature to see how you’re doing. 
 

“Well, hello there,” he says quietly to himself, “this is better!”   And, if you show signs of wakefulness,
 

“Welcome back,” in a friendly tone to you. “How do you feel?”

'''REDLAND'''

Redland replies in a low voice, "Terrible... but, on the other hand, I don't think it's an 'I'm dying' sort of terrible, so it's not totally bleak."
 

With visible effort, he forces himself to sit up so that he can take a drink of water from the tray Carl has brought. His hand trembles slightly and he spills a bit of water on himself, but he mostly seems alright. He pauses for a moment.
 

"I guess we're still on the boat? Did I miss anything? Where are we going? I'm not holding you back, am I?"
 

He looks around briefly and looks like he's about to say something, but instead falls silent.

'''CARL'''

“No, Jack.  All is well.  We’re just concerned for you, that’s all.”  Carl helps him with the glass.  “So is the ship’s doctor; he’s been here a few times.  Your fever broke last night.  We’ve been taking turns looking after you. We're on our way to London.
 

“Would you like something to eat?  All I have here is toast – but I can get something else if you’re hungry.”

'''REDLAND'''

"Well, I am starving ... on the other hand, I think if I throw up again, I may just die. Hmmm. How close are we to solid ground? Maybe I can just ride it out until I'm back on good ol' British soil."

'''CARL'''

“We dock tomorrow, sometime after one o’clock.  Hmm… maybe a bowl of oatmeal or porridge or something?  You really oughtn’t to wait – and I imagine they can whip that up.”
 

He stays silent for a few moments, waiting to help you take another drink.

'''REDLAND'''

"Alright. If you think I'd be best served by eating something, let's go with the toast. Nice, dry, solid toast."
 

"I don't want you to hold back on account of me, when we get back to England," he non sequiturs. "I've had some time to think recently (some of that time was even spent thinking clearly). I believe I've displayed a great deal of hubris ... (is that the word I want?) ... and I'm not sure if my presence has been, on net, positive."
 

He continues, "Given my state of knowledge, my priors should be weak. If I'm to be a good Bayesian, I should listen considerably more attentively to those who have vastly more information and experience than I possess.
"My mind is still a little foggy, and I'm a bit hazy on almost everything after we went to Greece, but I get the pervading sense that I've been ... more rationalizing than rational."

'''CARL'''

“Toast it is then.   And you’re in luck; this is an English vessel so you get nice dry English toast.”  Carl grins, and passes the plate.
 

While Jack nibbles, Carl goes on.
 

“Greece was quite a while ago, Jack; is that really the last you recall?  What about our discussions with the Fae?  Pentheus?  And .. what’s a Bayesian?”

'''REDLAND'''

"Let's see, I recall that the Dark Pharaoh is one weird character, Milo loves his mule, Pentheus is of vital importance, and Alanna is very pretty."
 

He takes a sip of water. He looks a bit concerned.
 

"I'm, uh, not too concerned, at least not yet. I'm sure it'll all come back to me. I'm just a little ... fuzzy right now, and I don't think my brain is working at full capacity. I'm hoping that 'time heals all wounds' and whatnot."
 

His confidence seems to return a bit, though his voice is still weak.
 

"Thomas Bayes was a mathematician. Yet one more fine product of the British Isles. He's most famous for (the cunningly titled) 'Baye's Theorem', which deals with conditional probability. Namely," he says almost chanting, "the probablity of x given y is equal to the probability of y given x times the probability of x all divided by the probability of y."
 

He continues, "I was referring to the school of thought that, essentially, uses this theorem in a way that I think of as 'Bayesian updating', in which you should constantly be updating your beliefs based on new information, in relation to how probable your prior beliefs were and how valuable the new information is.
 

"Put that way, I guess it probably doesn't sound too profound, but I think it is the only proper way to think. Unfortunately, although I strive to be, I'm often not a good Bayesian (just like I'm not always a good Utilitarian), and I overweight the value of my prior beliefs. It's often easier to trivialize new information than it is to admit you were mistaken and be forced to 'rearrange your mental furniture'."