TheStarsAreRight:CarlNote8
REDLAND JACK
[I'm figuring that maybe we got interrupted or tired or perhaps Jack had to contemplate whether or not he was going to make a dash to NY. We could then have the conversation then resumes on the train or at the estate or even on the trip to Russia (I'm not sure which parts we're skipping over prior to the next session), or whatever you think best. Also, you were right, and for reasons unknown, I only sent the reply on Saturday to one of your email addresses.]
"Howdy. Last time when we were talking, you'd mentioned something about the multiplicity of futures and whatnot. I was wondering if now would be a good time to finish that up. Er, if you're still interested and not too busy."
CARL
[Sure ‘nough – though perhaps a different name for the thread is in order, hmm? I believe next time we’ll try to pick things up leaving the Estate, so we’d be skipping over my trip to Geneva and everyone’s downtime at the Estate. We’re all traveling together in the private car from Chalon to Rome, so opportunities for hours-long chats with just the two of us are rarer. Let’s say, instead, that this is on the 11th at Chalon in the evening before we depart. Carl is back from his jaunt to Geneva, and is doing the rounds, making sure you are well, etc. He comes by the guest house, asks about your stay and what you think of the place – and inevitably perhaps, we get back round to our previous topics….]
“Oh – that!” Carl nods, brightening. “Yes – that was fun! I hadn’t really given much thought
to what the world might look like from outside of time before – thanks for reminding me!
“Did you have some thoughts on the matter?”
REDLAND JACK
[What, you didn't want to go with 'after after the meeting', followed by 'after after after the meeting', followed by 'after after after after...' Hmmm. Well, maybe that's for the best!]
"Well, I've had a lot of time to think on what you said. With the, er, prediction engine in Tibet, well, that seems pretty straightforward. It's hard to say how useful it would really be, though. I mean, certainly for short-term predictions into the future, it should be pretty accurate. But long-term or when ... I don't know exactly how to say this, but when individuals have the ability to cause major change, it seems that the explanatory power of the model will rapidly degrade.
"That is, apart from the obvious problem that we may have an inaccurate picture of current facts (for example, when you guys ran your predictions in Tibet, we had no idea what was going on with the BotB), anytime human action is involved, models seem to do a pretty poor job of projecting into the future. It's why the physical sciences have advanced so rapidly, while the social sciences, including economics, have achieved, relatively, so little.
"But the problem seems even worse with the Dark Pharaoh's method. That is, if he can see all possible futures, he could tell us nearly anything at all, and it would be true and, simultaneously, completely useless.
"This is compounded by my difficulty in understanding what this would even mean. Either all futures exist, in which case ... well, I don't even know what that would mean. Or, as time's arrow moves forward, only the experienced future exists and all others cease to be. In which case, they weren't really true. Hmmm. I just don't know."
CARL
[ would have been fine with it … except that it’s a different meeting now…. ]
“I agree. Of course a model is only as good as the information that goes into it; if you’re missing crucial facts, your model suffers. The big utility of the Tibetan engine is not so much that it can show likely futures as that, within the domain of the things that are significant to its model, it seems somehow to be able to gather the relevant information as it happens, clairvoyantly, all over the world. So if we ask the right questions about the present moment, or even the past, we can find out facts we have trouble getting otherwise. The trends of the negotiated futures are really more of a bonus.” He laughs. “If we’d thought to ask about the Brotherhood, we might have learned something then. We didn’t ask.
“As for individuals being able to cloud the model, well, yes. That’s as it should be, hmm? Free will and all? Beating the odds is what people *do* --a t least sometimes. I approve of it, I count on it, even if it makes my job harder sometimes. Predestination and inevitability are the goals of the King of Fate – not mine.
“Which brings us back to that interesting notion of witnessing all possible futures. I met a man a couple of years ago, a physicist, who had a lot to say about probability and the way the universe runs. Fascinating fellow, though the stuff he said was underneath reality was enough to make your head spin. We talked, among other things, about the notion that each time a choice was made, a new future was created. In which case, did the universes containing the other possible choices exist? Had they ever existed, in which case, had they just been destroyed?
“Neither of us was happy with the notion that the other possibilities had never existed at all; it robbed us of all semblance of free will. But neither of us was happy, either, with the notion that entire universes were being created and destroyed with each choice and every moment. That sort of massive thrashing about not only seems wasteful, it also violates a lot of apparent laws of conservation. You’d have a – a sheaf of universes – expanding mass, energy, and potential without limit at an appalling rate, forever, out of nothing. Doesn’t make sense to me.
“The idea that the current ‘present’ was remade each moment using the energy of all the other failed choice-universes was better, since things at least stay bounded that way; but still, you have a lot of things being created and destroyed without anything influencing them at all, just because some choice was made on the other side of the planet – or across the galaxy, or what have you. Still seems wrong.” He shrugs.
“Petersen and I never had a chance to finish that talk; he had to leave to meet some folks in Europe, as I recall. But all that was on my mind when we talked in London, and the notion I put to you, that all the choices exist continuously, and some sort of continuity of awareness or will navigates us from one to the next, came to me while we were talking. I’ve puzzled over it since then too – and it still seems like an idea worth examining further.
“All of which only underlines what some of the occult authors keep saying: that the true reality underlying the universe is stranger than we perceive, and can hurt our minds if we look too closely unprepared.
“As for the Dark Pharaoh. He could lie and tell the truth at the same time; like you say, possibly meaningless. I’d bet, though, that he has a good sense of which futures are currently more popular – more likely – and so chooses what he shows with his own advantage in mind.”
REDLAND JACK
"Whether or not free will exists seems to largely be of interest 'academically' or 'ethically'. The problem with those who believe in Materialism or Fatalism or some other nonsense of this sort, is that the models completely lack predictive power, they are typically non-falsifiable, and their explanatory power (or ability to enhance understanding) is generally no better than a 'just so' story.
"Ethically, the question is of some interest, because when we sanction someone for their behavior, the usual justification is that they have done something 'evil'. Of course, if there is no free will, then it is difficult to claim the person has behaved unethically, since they had no choice in the matter ... 'the devil made me do it' is then a valid excuse.
"Academically, I'm not sure how the proposition can be either proved or disproved. This makes it mostly of interest to academics who want to spin out different philosophies based on different starting assumptions.
"Practically speaking, it is irrelevant whether free will exists or not. Either way, we do much better to act as if it does. Sanctions then act more as a deterrent from doing something that reduces welfare than as a punishment for doing something evil.
"Anyhow, the reason I bring up the notion of individual action conceivably lessening the value of the Tibet model, is that one problem with models of human behavior, is that the minute you create the model, if one of the people you are examining observes it, they will change their behavior, thus rendering the specifications of the model invalid. Hmmmm. I supppse, though, that when examining probable futures, that may be the entire point.
"As to our other question. It strikes me that Occam's Razor would indicate that no future truly exists (and in a sense, no past). There is only the present. As time grinds inexorably forward, potentials narrow and resolve into an actual. These potentials never truly existed, though, they were mere possibilities. We can neither enter our past (save in memory) nor explore alternate futures (save in our imagination).
"This proposition, as a hypothesis, has the nice property of being falsifiable. Well, probably. If someone did step into the past or the future, would we be able to recognize this ex-post? Hmmm."
CARL
Carl laughs, delighted. “Oh, that’s cold! I do like it. You’re right, the argument for or against free will is irrelevant, because the choice is already made either way.
“Consider, then, the following. There are records at the Estate of people of individuals, through occult means, travelling to the past; and others to the future. Or what they perceived to be the past and future, at any rate. Seemingly, they went *somewhere.* Perhaps it was all a huge fabrication; but from a practical standpoint, if they didn’t go into a past, or a future, where did they go?
“As a corollary, here’s a question. Does it make sense to speak of materially visiting the past if you can’t change it, and have those changes affect the present? Because if you cannot change it, you might as well be examining a very vivid memory, as you said a moment ago. Likewise, if one experiences something one believes to be the future, then returns home and changes things so that future does not exist, did that future exist at all?
“Either way, we don’t normally need to worry about time travel, we merely need to examine the usefulness of predictive visions by means such as the Tibetan engine or the Pharaoh – which probably use different approaches. I think I already told you, I’m more comfortable with the engine than the Pharaoh, since the Pharaoh evidently has Its own agendas and the engine, at least so far as we can tell, seems unbiased. So far, from what you’ve said, the very broad outlines of the Pharaoh’s visions to you seem to dovetail nicely with the things we’ve learned from the engine. I don’t know enough of the details of your information to be able to test that more precisely though.”
REDLAND JACK
"Well, far be it for me to call anyone a liar. I mean, in the past I would likely have made allusions, but now, well, a lot of what I knew is obviously wrong (or at least incomplete), and a lot of what I know now I've forgotten. This makes me less likely to cast aspersions. That being said, I have a hard time believing that someone could physically travel to the past. I'm trying to fathom what that would mean.
"I guess I'd quickly have to abandon the idea of a single timeline and probably a single world/universe. But once you go there, I think you get back into your problem of whether universes are being ccreated and destroyed and all of that stuff. It just seems highly implausible. Though it is certainly possible that I simply lack the creative mind necessary to understand the way in which it all makes sense. Which is to say, that, while I could be convinced, for now I'd assume that if someone thought they'd gone (physically) into the past, then they were simply confused.
"Now, as to going into the past 'noncorporeally', that seems possible. For instance, assume that there is, say, some fairly omniscient, long-lived creature out there. It seems feasible that you could 'go to the past' by viewing this creatures memories.
"As to 'going to the future', this seems highly plausible to me. For instance, one could say that we're going to the future right now. Trivial example aside, one could further say that you and I have already traveled forward in time once before, namely, back in December. Given that we traveled forward in time 6 weeks, I don't see any reason to assume that a person couldn't travel further forward.
"Clearly, the problem with traveling forward in time, is that you cannot go back. It's a one way trip. The return trip would be 'going back in time', reverting us to our previous problem. Or so it seems to me.
"Regarding the veracity of the predictive visions, insofar as the Tibetan mechanism lacks agency, it seems less open to bias than the Pharaoh. Of course, there is possible bias in the inputs into the engine, or at least conceivably. I don't actually have a good understanding of how the engine works.
"The possible advantages to the Pharaoh are that he might have a better understanding of the relevant facts to enter his model (or, as you say, he may be looking at actual futures), and there may be some value to having a thinking entity interpreting the outputs. Personal beliefs as to the Dark Pharaoh's trustworthiness would definitely alter the perceived value of his prediction.
"Oh. I don't know if I've mentioned this before, but, although I've forgotten many things, one of the things I recall with great clarity (at least I think I recall it with great clarity), is the Pentheus vision from the Dark Pharaoh. Perhaps because I was using a different part of my brain at that point?"
CARL
“You’ve mentioned that vision a few times, yes – I’m glad you recall it, insofar as it seems to have a lot to do with your support for the Pentheus plan.
“How, exactly, was that vision granted? Do you recall?”
REDLAND JACK
"As to the exact mechanics, well, I'm not really sure. However, the vision itself was as though I was experiencing it ... no wait, that's not exactly right. Um, it was more like it was a really vivid dream ... one of those dreams where you sort of know it's a dream, so I had a limited control over what I was doing. I could 'zoom in' or 'zoom out' a bit. However, it was also a bit like a moving picture. I don't think I could have lingered indefinitely over one section, but I was being guided ... pushed forward to various points of interest.
"Er, is that what you were asking or have I skirted the relevant points?"
CARL
‘No , that’s it. Very interesting. More useful in some ways than the output of the Tibetan engine, possibly less in others. You need to have a lot of knowledge or a lot of available energy to zoom in very far in Tibet. Was it purely sensory, I mean were you simply a floating presence, or was there a narration of any sort – were you given information about what you were seeing?”
REDLAND JACK
[This happened quite awhile back, so I may have misremembered, but, to the best of my knowledge, this is an accurate account.]
"Hmmm. Well, I keep shifting the metaphor on you, but I would maybe say it was like a guided tour, albeit with a mute guide. That is, I was definitely being shown specific things, such as the tattoos. And, while there was no explicit narration, I guess I had a 'sense' of what was going on, perhaps moreso than should have been apparent just from what I was seeing. In that way it was, again, perhaps like a dream. A specific example of the 'sense' thing, though is that I knew that about 25% of the people in the world had been lost to the Outsiders and that 20 years or so had passed from the time I had seen the tattoos to the time I had seen the 'revolution'."
CARL
“Hmm. Another advantage of having an intelligent guide, I should say.” He nods, then pauses, struck by a thought.
“We’ve been talking a lot about prophecy, yes? It occurs to me that we already have a significant example of a third sort of prophecy to hand, which has rather interesting consequences: The tale of the Principles. The, ah, document was presented to us as prophecy, and continues to be accurate in significant ways – yet the ‘prophecy’ actually seems to be a historical account – a history of a process that really does repeat in cycles, albeit with some variation. Moreover, the process is flexible – you can nudge it this way and that, but whatever forces cause it to occur seem to adapt, so that you still get a recognizable version of the outcome, even if the details differ.”
REDLAND JACK
"I don't know too much about the Principles, but it strikes me that this could be, well, not a self-fulfilling prophecy, but, um... Well, it seems that the most important person, by far, in each of the six interactions, is the Power. I presume the Power has been around for a really long time (and, hence, Aspiration the Power is the same each time). The fact that they require a woman born on a specific day with a specific court, may not really be evidence of an accurate prediction, but is instead evidence of an active plan."
CARL
“That was my point, really – it’s not a prediction at all, is it? More of a report of a trend, as seen by someone who doesn’t know that plan?”
REDLAND JACK
"Ah. Sorry, I misunderstood what you were saying. To your point, I guess a 'prophecy' from the Dark Pharaoh is even worse. That is, a prophecy made by a powerful player in current events sounds more like a goal than a prediction. But, of course, this has been your warning/objection all along."
CARL
“Yes – that is a real danger. All the inputs we get, documents and testimony as well as ‘prophecies’, have to be examined warily, to identify and exclude bias when we can. It’s particularly bad when dealing with ‘magical’ issues, they tend to be subjective and differ for each person, so are harder to validate. Which leads to the odd state of affairs that we can, generally, put more trust in sources that are more ignorant. The less they know, the easier it is to take bias and agenda into account.”
REDLAND JACK
"That's why I'm so trustworthy."
CARL
Chortle. “Oh – is *THAT* why? Good to remember that. I guess that’s also why I’m so shiftless and unreliable. I’ll have to keep that in mind too.”
REDLAND JACK
"Well, I guess we'll be on our way tomorrow. I'm sure you'd rather spend time with your family than with ol' Jack (hard as that is to believe). I did want to check to see if there's anything in particular you'd want me to be doing, either in Italy or Russia. Usually I'm preoccupied with my own schemes on these trips, but I'm trying to turn over a new leaf, so I figured I'd try to make myself useful (for a change of pace)."
CARL
Carl pauses a moment, adjusting to the sudden shift in mood.
“All right – yes,” he says, as things slip into place. “A couple of things.
“First, before we leave the Estate. Have you had a chance to read up on the iconography at all? I’d like you to be at least aware of the differences in style and myth between the Greek and Russian ikons, and in particular between the Kievan and Muscovite schools of the art. Neither of us will ever be sought-after as art critics, but there’s a mystery here: If my ikon is supposed to be Kievan, and Becker’s is Muscovite, but they are not only painted by the same hand (or at least by students of the same master) but they ‘speak’ to one another in such a powerful exotic way that one might wonder if they were designed to do so, then there’s a mystery to unravel.” He pauses. “Strike that; we have Miss Ripley for the art analysis, don’t we? All right, I want you to talk to her then – have her point out to you the things about each piece that make them related, so you’ll be able to recognize those same things again in other art. You’ll have the better part of two days on the train for this, after we leave here. And if she gives classes, then I’d like to be there too.”
He smiles.
“Secondly, in Rome. This is trickier, because I want your eyes and ears out there, but I’m not so sure what I’m looking for. There are three things I want to touch on in Rome. Firstly – personally – I will be looking for signs that the Church is actively defending their heartland against the Outside and other occult manifestations, and/or adapting their works to the rise of magic. We already know that the Pope has an active order of sorcerer-priests, but we know little about their goals or what they actually do. We call them the Brotherhood of the Bright Sun, because of the gold sunburst rings they wear – but that may not be what they call themselves.” He shrugs. “In any case, the Church is aware of the Kings and the Principles, but has taken no active stance either for us or against us so far. I am relying on the Church and their Brotherhood to defend the faithful under their care, but would like more evidence that they’re ready to do so when all Hell breaks loose later this year. So, I go to Rome, and I look for signs that they’re watching us – that they’re aware of me, and of the ikons … and of you.” Carl raises his eyebrows. “You may be spotted as a potential enemy, Jack, because of your ties to the Pharaoh. I want to see if that happens. So watch for the watchers, hmm? Also, there are places in Rome where I have, as King, already set forces in motion to strengthen the Church and empower the faithful. I need to see how those forces have changed things, and prune them or help them grow. It will be important to me to see how much you can perceive of these things, and how much they affect you. Lastly, the ikons themselves. How will they respond to Rome – and how will Rome respond to them?” Carl lets that hang in the air a moment, then shakes his head and continues.
“Thirdly, in Russia itself. I’m not sure where to begin. We need to talk at greater length about Russia’s history, but there will be time on the way I think. For now, these few things.” He leans forward, counting them off on the fingers of one hand. “At one time, perhaps a thousand years ago, Russia was very rich in the occult. Lots of leys, lots of ambient, lots of -- what to call them – spirits, nachtkinder, living manifestations. Enough so that the Christian church, when it moved into the Russias, was unable to entirely control the earlier folk ways and pagan beliefs as it had elsewhere. Instead it adapted to them, and adapted them to it, so that the worship of Christ took a place alongside, rather than instead of, the older ways.
“There is evidence that things didn’t stop there however. Signs of occult warfare between the Russian monasteries and the land spirits. Signs that the Russian leys were, sometime in the last five hundred years or so, deliberately cut off – closed – so that a huge part of the Land and the ambient Unity died. I don’t know who did this, or for which side, but it did happen. It led to a sort of cultural madness, as certain vague, unconscious ties between people in the Russias weakened. Some occult rites and traditions were passed down however. Both in the churches, and in the Imperial families. More about that later.
“In recent years, after the 1915 revolution, we have heard reports of Stalin’s military developing magical weapons. Some of these are what I would call ‘demons’ of a sort – summoned things that consume their enemies – while others seem to be weapons that are fueled by sacrificed victims. I do not know if they work on principles similar to the ones designed by the Tower, we do not have samples; however their research was intense and their results very real.
“Now, of course, we have the counterrevolution. Alexis Romanov, backed by a cabal of expatriate alchemists, awakened the Russian land using an old Romanov rite, and used the power of millions of deaths to restore Russia to an older way. How much older? We don’t know. The implication is that the leys are back, the Land spirits waking, and the Tsar is King of his Land as well as anointed by his Church – but none of us have seen it yet. We just don’t know what has happened there, or what is growing. Is this the Russia of a century ago? Of a millennium ago? Or something else entirely? And what part does the Church play there now – are they partners or antagonists against the new powers?
“Jack, when we get to Russia I will have a lot to do with the monks, and with the courts. I want you to keep eyes and ears open, to find – learn about – and speak with the Powers in the Land. For that, you should study up, hmm? Learn all you can, now and on the way, about Russian spirits, witches, folklore, and so on. Be ready to meet them – so you know what to say and what to avoid, and perhaps also how best we can make deals with them if need be.
“Is that enough to keep you busy?”
REDLAND JACK
"Dang. Travel with you always deals a serious blow to my worldview. I mean, who would have ever suspected that art classes would be more useful than econ. classes? The universe has gone topsy-turvy...
"So let's see. It sounds pretty straightforward. On the ikon situation, I basically just foist all of the work onto Ms. Ripley, which I think I can handle. Then in Rome, I will act as bait for the BotB (I can't imagine calling them that will cause any confusion) and when they swoop in to destroy me for my heathen associations, you guys may step in to protect me (remind me to be nice to you guys for the next few days). Desire for self-preservation will give me good incentive to, as you say, keep my eyes and ears open."
He speaks more seriously (finally..), "Is it likely that I'll be able to perceive anything in Rome? I'd've thought that'd be something that'd be more up the alley of Henrik or Rebecca. Or is it significant that I don't have any particular ability in this area and you want to see if whatever is occurring is so manifest that even one such as I can detect it?
"I wouldn't say this to Boris, but I'm a bit surprised that the Russians were able to develop anything of use, at least recently. They've been backwards, intellectually, economically, and politcally for quite some time. Catherine II was their last decent monarch.
"On the topic of Russian spirits, folklore, etc., well, you're asking me to do what I would choose to do ... always an easy sell. Research and communication, eh? Two things that are of high interest to me ... at least one of which I do well. Certainly you can count on me, particularly in this matter."
CARL
Carl smiles. “I thought you’d like that one. And yes, tongue in cheek aside, I’d say you’ve got it.
“We don’t know much about what the Bolsheviks did, all we have are a couple of field reports from folks who saw some of that stuff in action. It may be stolen technology, for all I know – in which case, knowing where it came from is rather important, don’t you think?
“And yes – Henrik and Rebecca will need their eyes and ears open too, especially in Rome. You all have things to look at – and what you see may be different, even if you’re looking at the same things.”
REDLAND JACK
"There's one thing that has been bugging me. (Well, alright, tons of things bug me, but...) This 'rite' that Alexis Romanov performed... he used his enemies to power this, correct? Thus, we can assume that the 'sacrifices' were involuntary (is that why so many were needed?) How is that possible? I mean, I don't fully understand what the effect of the rite was, but it seems that, perhaps, the 'cost' of it was more powerful/valuable than the result.
"I suppose that's one of the things we're going to look at while we're there..."
CARL
Carl ponders this.
“Agreed. We certainly should look at it – if they let us. I’m sure that it’s a touchy State issue, and probably shrouded in holy mystery too. Truth is, I don’t know if the many deaths powered the rite, or were an after-effect which was used in turn for other things. Anything that kills millions out of hand fits most peoples’ definition of ‘evil’.
“We must remember, of course, that the Tzar had several goals. Returning to power was the biggest I suspect; killing off all the Communists obviously served that goal, even if it had nothing to do with ritual or sacrifice. So from that perspective, the cost you speak of may have been seen as a profit regardless.” He purses his lips. “Of course, those deaths might have fed the land, or the spirits, or served some other purpose. Or none at all.”
REDLAND JACK
"Yeah, that's what I find (particularly) disturbing. The so-called 'cost' may have been the sole 'benefit'. That is, I could sort of comprehend the Tsar 'powering up' his spell with the lives of his loyalists, then using this power to summon a ... force ... of some sort that he used to slay all of his enemies. That would make a certain kind of sense.
"However, if he can somehow use his enemies as an 'input' to his spell, well, he'd be unstoppable, even if he just used the power derived from this to make a cheese sandwich. Which is to say, I'm a little more comfortable with the outputs of 'spells' having a powerful effect than I am with the inputs having a powerful effect."
CARL
“Well, with things this big, best assume it’s both. Most likely you are correct, and the Tzar’s rite slew his foes. But their lives – or their blood perhaps – could easily have then become payment – input, to you – for some other contract, or just fed old and bloodthirsty things that woke up for the occasion. So you have one thing beginning the next, and so on.
“We simply don’t know enough to say.”
Carl stirs, thoughtful.
“Jack…. I suspect that our presence in Russia is going to cause a little havoc. I can’t predict just how or what, yet, but it’s part of what the King of Life *does*. Shakes things up. Grows things. I just have this gut feeling that Russia is going to be,” he shrugs, “volatile. So be ready to duck, hmm?”
REDLAND JACK
Redland smiles, "'Get ready to duck,' eh, well, that's what the Professor of Economics *does* ... At least this one.
"But that seems a reasonable hypothesis. That the rite functions like, uh, like an avalanche. It starts nice and small with some voluntary sacrifice and then each step of the way, as more blood is shed, it becomes increasingly powerful, until millions of people are murdered."
CARL
“Yes.” Carl nods, smiling slightly, but his eyes focus far away for a moment before returning to Jack’s face.
“Are you going to hit the books tonight then? Or bring some reading for the journey? Because if you are, I have one more topic for your list.
“Japan.”
REDLAND JACK
"I suppose I'll have to, since we're hitting the road tomorrow. Is it okay to take items from the library? After all, if I get devoured by some hideous Outsider, you'd lose all of those valuable books.
"Japan, eh? Sure, just let me know what you want me to examine. I can burn the midnight oil, since I imagine I'll be able to get some sleep on the way down to Rome."
CARL
“Feel free to bring whatever you need from the Library. Well, let me re-phrase that. If it’s someone’s journal or report, or truly antique, then leave it there; if it’s a published book from the last few decades, chances are we can find more copies if needed, so feel free to bring it along.
“Japan. I’m speculating now. Theo and his team have been working in China for the past few weeks. From where they sit, it seems clear that Japan is a powder keg, and they’re going to be investigating further. Apparently the Emperor has taken on some sort of mystical apotheosis and the nation is rising up in nationalistic fervor, with the help of a rogue Avowed, a few of the Lady’s people, and some other advisors to show them how.
“The reason I bring it up, though, is that we’ll be in Russia – home to another Imperial apotheosis – and Russia and Japan are long-standing enemies with recent wars under their belts and a few remaining bones to pick. I consider it fairly likely that Japan will move against either China or Russia within a year or two, thought I don’t know enough to guess how or where.
“If the Russians feel the same way, then you may be sure that Japan is in their sites – and if there’s talk, then I want to be able to understand that talk. If there’s an embassy, I want to be able to guess what’s on their minds.
“We can’t really do much useful research from here, using library books, but it’s a start anyhow. You and I need to learn all we can on two fronts, and this applies to both Russia and Japan: We need to brush up on the ‘modern nation’, its resources, general topography, economy, roads, resources and so on, and we need to study whatever we can find about the ‘mythic nation’, their myths, folkways, ethical underpinnings and so forth – anything that might give us an understanding of what the Tzar or the Son of Heaven *is expected to be* in the eyes of their people – the sorts of things that empower the magic of the land.”
REDLAND JACK
"It seems odd that they would attack each other now. It sounds as though they're not in the dark in regards to this mystical stuff. Thus, I would assume that they have some knowledge of the impending incursion(s) of the Outsiders. Why go to war now when the gains would seem to be hard-won and fleeting?"
CARL
“It could be as simple as manifest destiny.” Carl spreads his hands. “Japan may not go to war; they may simply expand the protective benevolence of their Son of Heaven in all directions. Or not; you’re right, the greater threat may stay their hand. But how much do they believe in the greater threat? What do they plan to do about it?
“For now, of course, it matters little. What matters more is what the Russians think they’ll do. Which is why both of us need to start reading up.”
He smiles.
REDLAND JACK
Redland pulls out his watch and looks at it with more conscious deliberation than usual.
"Fair enough. I'll get right on it..."
CARL
Carl stands. “Now that I’ve killed your evening, my work here is done, I think. Is there anything you’d like from me?”
REDLAND JACK
"Ah. Sorry. I didn't mean to give you the (none-to-subtle) hint that I wanted you to hit the road. I was just trying to figure out how I want to approach the rest of the evening... That is, do I want to take a quick nap and then hit the library, study for a bit and then go to sleep, or do I want to pull an 'all-nighter'? Once I figure that out, I think I'm good to go. I suppose that means I'll be either here or the library if you need me for anything else."
CARL
Carl chuckles. “Thanks, Jack. Which do you want to work on first, Japan or Russia? I’ll grab books for the other one – so that we don’t compete. We can swap later.”
REDLAND JACK
"Hmmmm. Well, if you don't mind, I'll start with Russia. Even though the Russians have never been truly European, they are certainly moreso than the Japanese. My understanding of the philosophy of the Asian countries is ... quite poor. To an extent, of course, this means that I have more need to learn about them. However, best to walk before you run, I suppose."
CARL
“All right then – I’ll try to dig into Japan. From the little I know so far, I expect to be bewildered.” He grins.
REDLAND JACK
Redland holds up his hand, abruptly. "Oh, hey. Before you go, I just thought of something. I'm not sure why I didn't think of it earlier ... my mental processes have been a bit slow the last few days.
"You mentioned that there are records (on the estate) of people who believe they have traveled back in time. Do we know how they did this? It strikes me, that even if it isn't really going back in time, perhaps it would be good enough for my purposes. Namely, figuring out what the heck happened in New York.
"You also mentioned that the Oracle at Tibet, if I understood this properly, can 'predict' the past. Or more accurately, that it can interpolate accurately, given a sufficient quantity of data points surrounding the time in question. Is that correct? Could it, conceivably, fill in my gaps for me?"
CARL
“Hmm. Yes. From what I recall, there were artifacts involved in the past-travel case, and the users had no control over where or when they went. The travel to the future was more interesting, but doesn’t help us now, especially since we cannot tell if it’s *the* future, *a* future or merely an interesting fiction.
“Tibet is more likely to be helpful. Its views of the past are quite good -- *if* your event is one that the library recorded. One can follow the Kings, for instance, through all the events that changed them significantly – but you cannot watch their daily lives, it isn’t significant, and you cannot choose to watch some random farmer in Kansas at his daily toil, I suppose because their influence on the Worldsoul’s development is not enough to be visible at a distance.
“So we can go look for your assault. If we find nothing, we’ve learned nothing. If we find a record of it, we have not only gotten some insight into the event, we’ve learned more: that either you, in and of yourself, are of significance to the world, or that that event was important enough to be remembered. Which would be something good to know, eh?
“The question is, shall we take a look on the way to Russia? Or on our way home? Either way, it will impose a delay of a day or so.”
REDLAND JACK
"Well, I don't really want to delay everybody with an issue that's really only relevant to me. Last time we went to Tibet, we had to travel to, I believe it was Greece, to do so. On the way back from Russia, maybe, if nothing more important has arisen. If nothing else, I can always, at some point, skulk off on my own if we have some downtime or if my presence isn't particularly necessary."
Redland pauses for a second, considering.
"Hmmm. I suppose I could also send word there, somehow, and ask someone else to look into it for me. Not the kind of task I'm particularly eager to subcontract, but...
"Well, anyhow, I'd forgotten that the library didn't record everything, though I imagine you've mentioned it before. Although I doubt the library, as a general rule, spends a lot of time following my progress, I do frequently interact with major players. It's not unreasonable to suspect that whatever caused my problems may have involved somebody of importance, insofar as it probably takes considerable skill or power to alter someone's mind like that.
"That being said, you know, even if we find nothing, we've still learned something. It then becomes more likely that whatever caused my problem derives from natural origins or at most was the work of some low level practitioner... Negative results can often be as useful as positive ones.
"On my other thought, I guess the time travel idea is a nonstarter. It's probably just as well. The alternate method seems a lot safer."
CARL
Carl frowns intently. “Real, controllable, practical time travel would frighten me,” he blurts. “All philosophical reasons aside, it offers such a fundamental breakdown of our , ah, local way of doing things that I cannot imagine the system surviving intact. Just because I can envision a way in which it might be possible, given the Outsiders we have encountered, does not imply that I think it is a good idea! If nothing else, it seems likely to me that if one group started doing that sort of thing, sooner or later everyone would be doing it, with disastrous consequences. “ He shakes his head.
REDLAND JACK
"Yeah, not that I believe it's possible, but we certainly wouldn't want people going back in time mucking things up. I'm pretty happy with time having a single vector. On the other hand, if the only way to travel back in time was as a 'ghost', well, it seems like that would be spectacularly exciting for historians and their related ilk (anthropologists, archaeologists, etc.). The scope for mischief, of a sort, would still exist, but the dangers would be significantly mitigated. As I say, though, probably a nonstarter, at least at this time.
"What do you think of the idea of having someone else in Tibet look into the matter for me? I'm not overly excited about the idea of someone investigating my past, especially when I don't know what I did, but it could save some time."
CARL
“Not hard to do, but it depends upon who is there at the moment. The monks who run the place are not very communicative; if we want to send or leave messages, someone from Anaphi needs to hand-carry a note through the portal and give it to someone there who can read and act upon it. That is why, when I talk about looking things up in the Library there, I think in terms of going there myself.
“I believe Theo has a researcher on site who performs that function for him, but I don’t know who that might be, or whether he is always available. Would you like me to ask?”
REDLAND JACK
"Hmmm. Well, it's kind of an interesting dilemma. If I were always a completely forthright fellow, I'd have (almost?) no qualms about it. However, knowing myself, as I do, well, it's hard to say. I think I generally have good intentions. On the other hand, there are situations where I am doing what I think is right, where, nevertheless, I still wouldn't want anyone to know what I was doing. Clearly, this says something negative about my character, but, there you have it.
"The safer play, would be to go there myself. That way, I could hide (or disclose) whatever I wanted to about the incident (and whatever behavior I engaged in to cause it to come about). The downside, of course, being that it is unclear when I'll get a chance to look into it myself."
Redland rubs his chin, idly.
"How confidential would it be, do you suppose? If this researcher knows, does that mean Theo knows? And if Theo knows, does the King of Fate know (due to their current association)? I mean, it may all be moot. There may be nothing interesting there. Hmmm. What would you recommend?"
CARL
“If it were me, I should go myself – because I would wish to find out directly, not to be dependent upon someone I don’t know being able to ask the right questions…” Carl stops, bemused.
“…You do know that Theo *is* the King of Fate?”
REDLAND JACK
"Ah. Right." Redland considers for a moment "Did I mention that my mental faculties have been a bit off?" He laughs, albeit a bit oddly.
"I must have been thinking, uh, Tony, er, Grimaldi(?). Well, I guess that settles it. Regardless of whether or not I was doing anything ... untoward, I don't want the King of Fate to know anything about what I was (or am) doing. I've only met him once, but I don't like him, and I don't trust him. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to find out that I was doing something in New York to oppose him. Heck, I wouldn't be shocked to find out that he's the one who did this to me."
CARL
“Ah,”, Carl replies, a bit hesitantly. “Well then. That makes things simpler, hmm? I doubt that Theo had anything to do with your incident – but that is neither here nor there. We shall do the research ourselves, directly, whenever we can get round to it.”
He stands.
“Deal?”
REDLAND JACK
"Fair enough. We'll take care of Rome and Russia and then see where we stand.
"And on the book front, I'll start with Russia and you'll start with Japan."
CARL
“Sounds good to me.” He laughs. “As I recall, the Emperor of Japan is descended from some ancient god’s plucked-out eye! This should be interesting.
“Have fun with your Baba Yaga!”
REDLAND JACK
"Good luck. I'd say, 'sleep tight,' but I don't know if there'll be any time for that!"
